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Home sales to cool in years ahead

Southwest Florida and other parts of the state already appear to be experiencing a modest correction, in large contrast to a year ago.

Economists attribute the recent slowdown to poor weather conditions in many parts of the country, tougher mortgage qualification standards and a shortage of available inventory.

is always one of the most volatile sectors of the economy, but when sales are up, it usually for a several year period, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said Friday at a real estate conference in Houston.

a deep bust, we have now had two good years of recovery, but it has fizzled out. home sales and median prices have climbed 20 percent, NAR statistics show.

The market has made even greater gains in Sarasota and Manatee counties, where Realtors sold 18,977 existing homes and condominiums last year the highest total since the mid 2000s, records show.

That pace has receded somewhat this year, Danny Trevathan Youth Jersey with first quarter sales in the area dipping 1.8 percent when compared with the same time in 2013.

After almost three years of consistent, double digit gains, local home prices also are settling. The median price for a single family home in April was $210,000, up 3.5 percent over the year, Florida Realtors data shows.

That is the rate increase many economists expect for Florida and other popular housing destinations for the next few years.

Only four of the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the United States are expected to have price www.broncosnflofficialproshop.com/Nike-Malik-Jackson-Jersey.html declines, but conversely, none are expected to grow by more than 20 percent, according to the consumer real estate website Trulia.

in the midst of a very strong recovery, but even with that reset, we are still 13 percent off of our peak values, said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. question now is how much head room do we have so that homes are still affordable. housing recovery has been fueled largely by baby boomers eager to secure Florida real estate for retirement.

But as houses sales have intensified, the supply of available real estate has slipped to decade lows, which has spiked prices and pushed many lower income buyers out of the market.

With many workers wages remaining stagnant and residential rents on the rise they have increased 52 percent over the past 14 years analysts say housing Andre Johnson Youth Jersey has become considerably less affordable.

If the trend continues, experts fear any future recovery could be in jeopardy.

In Sarasota and Bradenton, home buyers must devote 18.5 percent of their wages to pay their mortgages, after putting 20 percent down to buy a median priced home.

Nationally, the average in the first quarter was 15 percent. The 15 year average is about 22 percent, according to Zillow.

If mortgage rates rise to 5 percent by mid 2015, as many economists at the National Association of Real Estate Editors conference predicted Friday, Southwest Florida buyers would have to devote 21 percent of their incomes to mortgage payments.

If interest rates climb to 6 percent, the figure jumps to 23.4 percent, Zillow notes. markets including in Sarasota Bradenton residential rents devour more than 30 percent of incomes.

don have to be an economist to see that a problem, Humphries said. difficult to imagine how people will spend www.broncosnflofficialproshop.com/Nike-Duke-Ihenacho-Jersey.html this much on housing when mortgage rates get back to normal.

mortgage rates rise, it could have a chilling impact on home sales. pace of real estate deals also could be hampered by what Danny Trevathan Kids Jersey economists call the effect.

When the economy slumped in 2007, prompting home prices and mortgage rates to fall, many Americans saw the opportunity to refinance or snap up bargain basement deals.

Analysts predict those same consumers will be reluctant to sell in the years ahead because they do not want to take on higher interest rate debt, capping supply and limiting the demand from so called homebuyers.

That company also believes shadow Andre Johnson Navy Jersey foreclosure inventory of almost 2 million homes could hurt states like Florida where the time to process defaults is lengthy.

are some really interesting effects that are abnormal in the market today and that are causing us to pause, said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic chief economist. are listing too high. There all of this lock in on the sell side, so now, those owners aren becoming buyers. the cost to buy a single family house in Sarasota and Manatee counties is more than 20 percent cheaper than to rent a similar residence.

Jed Kolko, Trulia chief economist, contends more conditions will be healthier for markets nationwide.

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